Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 21.496603 23.360387 25.373263 27.719403 30.392450 33.359318 36.923990
2025-10-26 18.448972 20.965367 23.869485 27.509885 32.010631 37.474292 44.739520
2025-11-02 16.261424 19.119364 22.591930 27.208291 33.322751 41.358359 53.111156
2025-11-09 14.731316 17.804038 21.698968 27.141582 34.801466 45.630480 63.004779
2025-11-16 13.488254 16.668785 20.842584 26.924889 35.948649 49.576061 73.454662
2025-11-23 12.479676 15.711992 20.079802 26.679980 36.941996 53.410447 84.836585
2025-11-30 11.646359 14.898300 19.405300 26.437213 37.843805 57.218463 97.413830
2025-12-07 10.981539 14.250535 18.886403 26.336204 38.914268 61.494084 112.517050
2025-12-14 10.367840 13.619692 18.323236 26.079473 39.651341 65.286290 128.182786
2025-12-21 10.122086 13.496070 18.495856 27.010196 42.602857 74.094160 160.732128
2025-12-28 9.644560 12.990675 18.032470 26.813673 43.426869 78.677653 184.726660
2026-01-04 9.253721 12.587371 17.692524 26.783495 44.553763 84.230608 215.772419
2026-01-11 8.950060 12.304415 17.532733 27.073534 46.420335 92.242744 263.437539
2026-01-18 8.583007 11.900342 17.144755 26.907153 47.314385 98.144546 309.838151
2026-01-25 8.227717 11.493839 16.722874 26.632492 47.931645 103.553357 361.717333
2026-02-01 7.940431 11.178979 16.432214 26.576340 49.034977 110.800335 436.150892
2026-02-08 7.651013 10.844399 16.083901 26.370259 49.755449 117.203563 519.676273
2026-02-15 7.379027 10.523878 15.738412 26.134592 50.368238 123.559863 620.709705
2026-02-22 7.127082 10.223681 15.409326 25.899916 50.948563 130.114887 747.004057
2026-03-01 6.913185 9.976189 15.158313 25.802329 51.870346 138.409585 930.882499
2026-03-08 6.691709 9.705625 14.849340 25.553297 52.353272 145.312657 1141.483327
2026-03-15 6.643234 9.724431 15.067341 26.456913 56.180249 168.461518 1876.757081
2026-03-22 6.451631 9.489148 14.800169 26.266228 56.860815 178.040251 2493.037174